Measuring and testing the long-term impact of terrorist attacks on the US futures market

This study compares the accuracy and information content of economic forecasts for G7 countries made in the 1990s by the OECD and IMF. The benchmarks for comparison are the average forecasts of private sector economists published by Consensus Economics. With few exceptions, the private sector forecasts are less biased and more accurate in terms of mean absolute error and root mean square error. Formal tests show these differences are statistically significant for forecasts of real growth and production, less so for forecasts of inflation and unemployment. Overall, there appears little information in the OECD and IMF forecasts that could be used to reduce significantly the error in the private sector forecasts.     

基于自适应模糊PID控制的中央空调冷冻水系统仿真研究

定风量空调系统的调节是通过调节冷冻水流量实现的,建立了各个部件的数学模型,通过调节水泵转速来调节冷冻水流量。由于空调系统参数的时变性,常规PID控制存在局限性,本文建立自适应模糊PID控制器,并与常规PID控制器进行比较,表明自适应模糊PID控制调节效果更好,简单易行。     

Gas storage valuation under limited market liquidity: an application in Germany

Natural gas storages may be valued by applying real options theory. However, it is crucial to take into account that most evolving gas markets, like the German spot market, lack liquidity. This implies that large-scale operation of storages reduces the achievable operating margin since storage operators will pay higher prices for injected gas and earn less on withdrawn gas. Optimal storage operation will take this into account. In this context, considering storage operators as price takers does not account for interdependencies of storage operations and market prices. This paper offers a novel approach to storage valuation taking into account the effect of management decisions on market prices. The methodology proposed within this paper determines the optimal production schedule and value by determining the stochastic differential equation describing the storage value and then applying a finite difference scheme. We find that limited liquidity lowers the storage value and reduces withdrawal and injection amounts. Further, we observe decreasing reservation prices for injection and withdrawing for growing illiquidity resulting in a left shift of injection and withdrawing threshold prices.     

高温多雨区SMA路面施工应用关键技术研究

SMA沥青混合料的材料组成特性导致施工难度较大,对施工各环节因素的敏感性较强.为提高广东高温多雨区重载交通路段SMA路面的施工质量,以广东紫惠高速项目为依托,开展SMA沥青混合料的下承层界面处理、混合料拌制工艺参数设定、装载与运输、摊铺设备参数、碾压工艺、施工温度控制等全过程施工环节监控,实现各环节的关键参数调整优化.采用体积法进行SMA沥青混合料设计,可以均衡混合料密实性与骨架嵌挤性能,获得良好的密水性能和抗车辙性能.基于无核密度仪研究了碾压工艺对SMA混合料的压实影响,沥青混合料压实度经历先增加后变小的现象,碾压过程应均衡压实度与路表构造来控制钢轮碾压遍数和路面温度.     

2013年中国货币市场运行报告

2013年,我国继续实施稳健的货币政策,坚持总量稳定、结构优化的要求,适时适度预调微调,保持银行体系流动性平稳,推动经济结构调整。在此背景下,货币市场交易规模稳步扩大,利率水平震荡上行,波动幅度和频率明显加大,非银行金融机构交易日趋活跃,货币市场的流动性管理功能进一步体现。     

The Bakery: a cross-functional case study for introductory managerial accounting

This instructional case is designed to achieve four educational objectives: (1) to give students a more complete appreciation of the importance of considering accounting information along with marketing and economics-related information, avoiding a myopic focus on accounting data, (2) to give students practice in pricing, cost volume profit analysis (CVP) and outsourcing decisions, (3) to help students learn to build spreadsheets that are capable of what-if analysis, and (4) to provide an active learning experience that engages introductory accounting students. The Bakery is a non-profit organization whose primary function is to sell baked goods and beverages to students in a large campus residence hall complex. In completing the case, students utilize information provided about the costs and previous pricing structure of The Bakery, along with information they collect about competitors' product offerings, prices, and accompanying services, and their own knowledge of The Bakery's customers, college students and their parents, as a basis for making pricing decisions. Once they have completed the pricing analysis, students use the resulting variable costing income statement to perform CVP and to analyze a decision to potentially outsource The Bakery's operations.     

基子组合预测法的公铁立交桥交通量预测研究

交通量的调查与预测是公路管理中的一项基础性工作,为了能够科学预测交通量,在交通工程理论、系统论等理论的指导下．采取系统分析的方法,对近10年公铁立交桥的各种交通组成、交通量,当地人口、GDP数量进行实地调查,再把调查的交通量数据进行折算为标准交通量,以此为基础对立交桥的交通量科学分析,进行组合预测,把预测的结果通过多元回归验证,最终确定了该立交桥的交通量,为公路建设总体布局与规划、旧路技术改造以及交通措施管理等提供了重要依据。     

基于灰色系统理论的湖南省物流需求预测分析

文中以灰色系统理论思想为指导,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型,以货运量表征物流规模。根据湖南省近10年来的物流需求变化,建立了灰色预测的GM(1,1)模型,预测湖南省今后5年的物流需求,为政府规划地区物流发展提供相关理论参考。     

浅析区域物流组织的匹配度

首先阐述了物流流量和匹配度的基本概念,并以此为依据,提出了匹配度的计算模型,其实质是选择包括运输成本和仓储成本的总成本最小的运输方案。最后通过算例,建立匹配度模型,利用LINGO软件计算得出流线组织最优方案。     

TRADER TYPE EFFECTS ON THE VOLATILITY‐VOLUME RELATIONSHIP EVIDENCE FROM THE KOSPI 200 INDEX FUTURES MARKET

We investigate whether the trading activity generated by investors with different access to information and trading motives has positive or negative impact on index futures volatility. Surprises in non‐member institutional, individual and foreign investors' trading volume are positively associated with volatility in most of the cases. For member institutional investors, unexpected trading volume is positively related to volatility. Long‐run changes in the trading activity also affect volatility differently across trader types. Finally, allowing for time‐to‐maturity effects, surprises in open interest are associated with more volatility towards contract expiration, contrary to the negative effect we find during normal times.